AI Treasury Yields
Big Tech is now competing with the US Treasury for capital, and it's winning.
Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have issued nearly $220 billion in corporate bonds this year to fund AI buildouts. That's more than double all of 2025's $108 billion combined. Analysts estimate this borrowing spree has added roughly 0.3 percentage points to the 10-year Treasury yield, which just touched a 25-year high.
Here's the part most people miss: this isn't just a tech story. When the biggest, most creditworthy borrowers in the world start crowding out demand for government debt, it raises borrowing costs for everyone else too. Mortgages. Small business loans. Corporate refinancing. The AI capex boom has quietly become a macro event.
For years the AI story was about compute and talent. Increasingly it's about capital markets, and who has the balance sheet to keep funding the buildout at this pace.
If you run a business that borrows money, this is worth watching closely. The AI arms race is now setting your interest rate too.
Do you think the market has fully priced in what happens if AI capex spending doesn't slow down next year?